Danish intelligence: Russia could intensify hybrid attacks against the West in coming months

The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (FE) assesses that Russia could intensify its hybrid warfare against the West and NATO in the coming months, with attacks potentially becoming more frequent and having greater consequences than previously.

The assessment is contained in a new threat assessment dated 24 September 2026. Denmark’s foreign and military intelligence service points in particular to the risk of destructive cyberattacks against critical societal functions and sabotage involving a high risk of casualties.

FE describes a deteriorating security situation in which Russia has become increasingly willing to take risks. The service highlights sabotage, cyberattacks and drone attacks in Europe, as well as more aggressive Russian behaviour towards NATO countries’ military units in the Baltic Sea region.

According to FE, Russian hybrid attacks have so far primarily sought to create fear and weaken public support for assistance to Ukraine. Russia is now increasingly seeking to prevent that support from reaching Ukraine, for example through sabotage targeting the defence industry or railways used to transport military equipment.

Low but increasing risk of limited military attack

FE also assesses that there is a low but increasing risk of a limited Russian military attack against one or more NATO countries bordering Russia.

According to the assessment, such an attack could take place within the coming months even if the war in Ukraine continues.

Possible scenarios mentioned by FE include isolated attacks using long-range weapons against infrastructure important to support for Ukraine or the deployment of limited military forces. The service assesses that the purpose could be to divert European resources away from Ukraine and attempt to divide NATO.

FE stresses that such a scenario would be different from a full-scale invasion.

The intelligence service continues to see no signs that Russia intends to invade one or more NATO countries with conventional forces and assesses such an invasion as unlikely. If Russia were to make such a decision, it would probably take at least six months to prepare and build up the necessary forces, according to FE.

Russia under growing pressure from war

FE assesses that Russia is under greater pressure than at any previous point during its war against Ukraine.

The service points to heavy Russian losses, limited territorial gains, Ukrainian attacks deep inside Russia and economic problems.

FE does not expect major Russian breakthroughs in Ukraine over the next six months. At the same time, it considers it unlikely that President Vladimir Putin will abandon his fundamental objectives for the war.

The new assessment supplements FE’s threat assessment from February 2025.

The previous timeframes for when Russia could be ready for a local, regional or large-scale war remain unchanged. However, those assessments depend on several conditions: that the war in Ukraine ends or becomes frozen, that Russia continues to rearm faster than NATO, and that Russia assesses that the United States cannot or will not support European NATO countries in a war.

The latest assessment instead focuses on the escalation that FE believes could occur within the coming months while the war in Ukraine is still ongoing.